Buying a home or investing in property can feel overwhelming when every headline talks about inflation, interest rates, and global uncertainty. That’s why we turn to the experts. Dr. Roelof Botha, one of South Africa’s most respected economists, has shared his insights into the latest trends shaping household finances, trade, and the property market.

Here’s what you need to know - in plain English.

Improvement in Household Finances

The latest Altron FinTech Household Resilience Index (AFHRI) - a tool that measures how ordinary South Africans are coping financially - shows encouraging progress.

What is the AFHRI?
It’s an index that tracks how households manage their money by looking at things like:

• Income growth (are salaries keeping up with inflation?);
• Access to credit (are loans becoming more or less affordable?);
• Debt levels & repayments (are people coping with what they owe?); and
• Savings and disposable income (how much is left after expenses?).

A score of 100 is the baseline, and anything above that shows households are doing better than average. In Q1 of 2025, the AFHRI climbed to 113.1 - the highest level on record for the first quarter.

Why did it improve?

• The Reserve Bank’s rate cuts since September 2024 have reduced the cost of borrowing;
• The new two-pot retirement system gave many households extra disposable income; and
• Private sector salaries have seen real (inflation-adjusted) growth.

Even though the index dipped slightly in Q4 2024 due to seasonal factors like festive-season spending and agricultural cycles, the overall trend is upward and stable.

Why it matters for you
When households are financially stronger, banks are more confident to lend. That means more affordable credit, better approval rates, and a property market with more active buyers and sellers. If further rate cuts happen later in 2025, households could be in an even stronger position.

Trade Surplus Keeps Growing

South Africa’s exports have been doing the heavy lifting for the economy. Since 2012, we’ve turned a trade deficit of R242 billion into a cumulative surplus that’s now above R1 trillion. For the first seven months of 2025 alone, the country recorded a trade surplus of R100 billion.

The main drivers remain:

• Minerals and base metals;
• Precious metals (rapidly catching up to minerals as our biggest export);
• Vehicles & components; and
• Agriculture & food

Why does this matter?

• A strong trade surplus brings in foreign currency, which supports the Rand and reduces pressure on inflation;
• It boosts government revenue through mining and export taxes, helping fund services and infrastructure; and
• It signals strong demand for South African goods, which supports jobs across key sectors.

Although new US tariffs could weigh on exports later in the year, the current resilience shows that South Africa’s export engine remains powerful. For households, this can filter through into lower imported inflation and more stability in interest rates - a welcome tailwind for anyone considering a home loan.

Precious Metals on a Roll

Gold and platinum are shining again :

• Gold hit above $3,470 per ounce, close to a record high; and
• Platinum is more than 50% higher than it was in April, with demand expected to outpace supply for some time

This is particularly positive for South Africa, which is a global leader in precious metals production.

Full Recovery for Motor Trade Sales

After years of recovery, South Africa’s vehicle market is officially back to pre-Covid levels :

• 135,000 new vehicles were sold in Q2 2025;
• That’s an average of 1,500 new cars hitting the roads every single day; and
• The motor trade sector is worth over R1 trillion per year and supports 580,000 jobs.

Importance for Homebuyers

Economic resilience, growing exports, and stronger household finances all point to a healthier financial landscape for South Africans. For homebuyers, this creates a more stable environment with the potential for lower interest rates and improved affordability.

At Phoenix Bonds, our role is to translate this big-picture analysis into practical guidance for your home loan journey. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or expanding your property portfolio, we help you secure the best deal - from all the banks, not just one.

📌 This article is based on exclusive analysis for Phoenix Bonds by Dr. Roelof Botha, renowned South African economist and academic.